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Sports Odds

Odds are basically a mathematical expectation and approximation of a certain outcome of a sporting event. For example, the odds of John Smith winning the French Open are 3-1.

So if a casino sportsbook posts odds of 3-1 for John Smith to win the French Open a bettor can wager $10 on Mr. Smith and can expect a return of $30 (in addition to his original $10) if Smith wins the French. Las Vegas casinos post odds for all major games and sporting events in America and some international ones as well. Odds can take many different forms such as who is going to win the game; can they win the game by this much (a point spread line); who is going to win the division; who is going to win the race; or who is going to win the tournament.

There are just as many different ways to bet these odds.

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Gambling odds versus probabilities

In gambling, the odds on display do not represent the true chances that the event will occur, but are the amounts that the bookmaker will pay out on winning bets. In formulating his odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful punter is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring. This profit is known as the 'over-round' on the 'book' (the 'book' relates to the old-fashioned ledger that wagers were recorded in and thus gives us the term 'bookmaker') and relates to the sum of the 'odds' in the following way:

In a 3-horse race, for example, the true chances of each of the horses winning based on their relative abilities may be 50%, 40% and 10%. These are the relative probabilities of the horses winning and are simply the bookmaker's 'odds' multiplied by 100 for convenience. The total of these three percentages is 100, thus representing a fair 'book'. The true odds of winning for each of the three horses is Evens, 6-4 and 9-1 respectively. In order to generate a profit on the wagers accepted by the bookmaker he may decide to increase the values to 60%, 50% and 20% for the three horses, representing odds of 4-6, Evens and 4-1. These values now total 130, meaning that the book has an overround of 30 (130 - 100). This value of 30 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he accepts bets in the correct proportions on each of the horses. The art of bookmaking is that he will take in, for example, £130 in wagers and only pay £100 back (including stakes) no matter which horse wins.

Profiting in online casino gambling involves predicting the relationship of the true probabilities to the payout odds. If you can consistently make bets where the odds of paying out are better (pay out more) than the true odds of the event, then over time (in theory) you will come out ahead.

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