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4 Main Factors | By JAR

In any game, there are always some elements that are essential. If you want to have good results, it is your responsibility to take a good look around you and see beyond the obvious.

There are four factors that you must never forget: trends, statistics, the spot and the value.

The trends or statistics

You can understand a "trend" as a "general direction" of movement. In this case, it's the tendency of one team doing something over time. However, you cannot build your opinion based only on this because trends can be very fickle and won't necessarily apply to every situation. There are some obvious instances in which you should look a bit deeper into to discover more complex situations within the game. Here’s an example to illustrate this point: if you have teams A and B, and team A has won 5 games in a row against team B, but team B now has a new coach, this would modify all old trends and these may not apply anymore.

Statistics are vital in figuring an outcome out; current and past statistics will help you to project a timeline of events.

The Spot

The condition or timing of the event may be a big factor in its conclusion and outcome; this is called the "spot". Sometimes it's a factor that differentiates a handicapper from another, and it can be part of the information that cannot ever be figured by any software program.

For instance, if there is a weaker team coming off an upset from a stronger team, it may ether have a let-down the following weak or could keep momentum.

In these cases, you need to judge every movement and analyze things case by case. Sometimes the statistics show a possible result, yet in fact the opposite is what happens, like when some team plays against another and wins against the forecasts. At that moment we can say the team had momentum.

It's important to examine the value in the call of any event; sometimes the spot may be off-set and you won't get any advantage if the lines makers have already calculated this.

What is value?

The above bring us to this interesting question: what is the exact meaning of "value"?

Well, if you think it carefully, we can assign a certain rating to each team, called "power rating", that depends on the importance of the team (for each person or each situation). This can be done in any system, and is useful for every handicapper to establish his own value system.

Now, taking this "value" into account we can use it in a comparison of 2 teams, examining the statistics, the trends, and the strengths and weakness of each.

There are many more factors and information, like contacts, that you could use in your favor; of course, you can always dig deeper and deeper. But these four factors above will always help you arrive at the best results possible.