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4 Main Factors | By EZSportsWinners.com

By M Tipton

I look here at four main targets when analyzing a game: The trends or statistics, the "spot", the value, and finally, relevant information facts, such as whatever contacts we've got, validating our view of the environment surrounding the event, the mood, etc.

The "trend" is basically a tendency for one team to do some something with another over time. Trends, however, can be very tricky so you have to really watch out for basing your decision solely on this factor. Just because a team has hammered another team, over and over, won't necessarily apply to every situation. For example, let's say Team A has won 5 straight games over Team B, but Team B now has a new coach involved. A lot of those old trends just may not apply now! Yes, this is an obvious situation, but a handicapper needs to look a bit deeper at some more complex situations, and this certainly illustrates the point. Obviously, statistics, both current and some past, figure in, and are vital in figuring an outcome. In addition, trends such as playing surface, history etc. are important as well.

So what's the "spot"? Well, this is the situation, or the timing of the event, that may factor in to the conclusion, and outcome. A lot of times, this is information not figured in to any software program, and this may be the factor separating one handicapper from the next. For example, a weaker team, coming off an upset of a stronger team, may have a let-down the following weak, or may have momentum. This has to be analyzed by a case by case basis. So,let's use a real life situation, played out in the 2007 of college football. Colorado under Coach Hawkins had a monumental upset of mega power Oklahoma, 27-24, in week 6 of 2007, but were now traveling to Baylor, in which surely qualified as a huge let-down spot for the Buffs. Baylor came in as 9 point underdogs, playing at home. This situation is definitely a "spot" to wager against Colorado, but only in itself. You have to match up these criteria with many other factors, the most important being that Baylor is simply no match talent wise! So, were the Bears the play of the day, or were the Buffs the way to go? Baylor certainly had a decent offense, but their defense couldn't stop a grocery cart, and the result was a complete wipeout for Colorado, despite the chance of huge let-down. Baylor got crushed, so the "spot" is only one part of the equation, although at times can be very important. The spot can definitely be off-set, which is why you have to consider value in the call of any event. If the lines makers have already figured this situation like with this Bears/Buffs contest, in to the line, then it won't be to any advantage. Which of course now brings us to "value"? So... what exactly is value? Well, each team can be figured in any kind of system, with a certain rating, or power rating. Every handicapper has his own value system. What I look for in this "value" criteria, is the relationship of the two teams, the strengths, the weakness, as well a lot of stats, plus adjustments for the success patterns of the two teams.

As far as contacts, and other information factors, let's just leave it at that; that we dig deep for a result, and we try and bring you the best results possible. Having information and contacts in various locations surely helps us in arriving at an expected outcome, and this can help verify sometimes what we're analyzing on paper.

Every game is figured by the experts of the casino houses, in reaction to market demand, and they don't miss a thing and that... You can bank on! However, sometimes, those reactions by the public are displaced. I look to find those inequities in the market place. When all four of the above criteria can be met, rest assured, we call for a top rating, although just not very common. Those are the games you have to pounce on!